2022 Midterm Election Results: Update 11/09/22

What do we know on Wednesday, November 9?

Republicans are expected to win control of the House. Republicans won at least 203 seats (a pickup of 11 seats) compared to 187 seats for Democrats (a pickup of four seats). Although Republicans flipped several Democrat-held seats in the House so far, it has not been the “red wave” the GOP anticipated. Republicans will likely gain a net of eight to 15 seats when all the votes are counted — short of the historical averages for midterm elections and below pre-election predictions. In the Senate, Republicans control 49 seats, and Democrats control 48 seats. Democrats have picked up one GOP-held seat in Pennsylvania, but control of the Chamber will likely come down to the Georgia and Nevada races.

What is still pending?

• Control of the Senate is still up for grabs. Races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada remain uncalled.

  • Democrats can only afford to lose one of their currently held seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada to retain their control in the Senate.

  • The Georgia Senate race will head to a runoff election on December 6, with neither candidate reaching the 50% threshold required.

  • Incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D) is ahead in the vote count in Arizona, leaving control of the Senate in the hands of the Georgia and Nevada races.

• There are dozens of competitive House congressional districts that are too close to call. We will not know the final party breakdown of the House for days — or weeks — and control of the House is in the balance.

What key races did Republicans win?

• Senate

  • North Carolina: Ted Budd won the race to keep the seat in GOP control.

  • Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance held off Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan, holding on to a Senate seat for Republicans left open by retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman.

  • Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson held on to his competitive seat against Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.

• House

  • New York: While many seats are uncalled, Republicans appear poised for big pickups in New York, including NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, and NY-19.

  • Florida: Republicans picked up three seats in the sunshine state in FL-4, FL-7, and FL-13.

  • Other: Republicans also flipped seats in AZ-2, GA-6, NJ-7, TN-5, TX-15, VA-2, and WI-3.

  • There are still dozens of uncalled competitive House races that could be added to this list.

• Governor

  • Florida: Incumbent GOP Governor Ron DeSantis won a commanding victory over challenger Rep. Charlie Crist by over 1.5 million votes.

  • Georgia: Incumbent GOP Governor Brian Kemp won his closely watched rematch with challenger Stacey Abrams. Kemp’s latest count is ahead by nearly 300,000 votes.

What key races did Democrats win?

• Senate

  • Colorado: Incumbent Senator Michael Bennet won in a race Republicans hoped would be an election-night surprise.

  • New Hampshire: Incumbent Senator Maggie Hassie won in another race Republicans thought would be more competitive heading into election night.

  • Pennsylvania: Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman flipped the Republican held seat for a net gain for Democrats.

• House

  • Michigan: Democrats won and held onto key seats in MI-3 (also a flipped seat) and MI-7.

  • Ohio: Democratic challenger Greg Landsman defeated six-term Republican incumbent Steve Chabot in OH-1, while 21-term incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur held onto her seat in OH-9 in a tough new district.

  • Texas: Democrats held on to seats in TX-28 and TX-34 — seats that Republicans hoped to flip to build a stronger majority.

  • Other: Democrats also flipped seats in IL-13 and NC-13 and held onto vulnerable seats in VA-7, MN-2, IN-1, and NH-1.

  • There are still dozens of uncalled competitive House races that could be added to this list.

• Governor

  • Maryland: Democrat Wes Moore flipped the governor’s house previously held by Republican Governor Larry Hogan and elected its first Black governor.

  • Massachusetts: Democrat Maura Healey flipped the seat held by Republican Charlie Baker, making history as the nation’s first openly lesbian governor.

What key factors drove the results?

1. Early Voting: There were 45.9 million early votes cast, surpassing the 39.1 early votes from the 2018 midterms. Although Democrats controlled 42.5% of the early vote — compared to 33.8% for Republicans and 23.6% for other parties — early voting appears to have had mixed results for Democrats.

a. In the Nevada Senate race, for example, Democrats seemed to underperform in early voting, especially in Clark County — the Democrat’s stronghold in the state.

b. In Georgia, early voting ended with a total of 2.5 million ballots cast, breaking the state’s early voting record. Black voters also accounted for 29% of early voters, up from 27% in 2020, giving Democrats a possible advantage.

2. Election Spending: Nearly $10 billion was spent this election cycle on political advertisements — the most expensive election ever.

a. Some of the most expensive areas include South Texas; Clark County, NV; the metro Atlanta area; Orange County, CA; Maricopa County, AZ; Northeastern Pennsylvania, and Wake County, NC.

3. Split-Ticket Voting: In states holding both a governor and Senate race, split-ticket voting seems to have played a significant factor.

a. In Georgia, for example, GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker trailed Republican Governor Brian Kemp by over 150,000 votes.

b. Similarly in Pennsylvania, Democratic winner John Fetterman trailed Democrat Governor-elect Josh Shapiro by over 250,000 votes.

4. Candidate Quality: Candidate quality, an issue raised by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) earlier this year, appears to have been a concern for voters. Dozens of Trump-backed candidates with little political experience were defeated or struggled in otherwise winnable races.

What happens before the next Congress?

• The Senate returns to D.C. today, and the House returns on Monday for a packed lame-duck agenda.

  • Top issues in the lame duck included passing fiscal year 2023 appropriations and the fiscal year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.

  • Other potential issues for the lame duck or early next year include energy permitting, tax extenders, trade policy, retirement security, and FDA program reforms.

• House Republicans plan to hold leadership elections on November 15. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will likely become the next speaker of the house, clearing the way for Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) to be the next majority leader.

  • The most competitive leadership race will be for majority whip. There is a three-way contest between Reps. Tom Emmer (R-MN, the chair of the NRCC), Drew Ferguson (R-GA, the current chief deputy whip), and Jim Banks (R-ID, the chair of the Republican Study Committee).

• Senate Republicans plan to hold their leadership elections on November 16. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is highly likely to stay on as the highest-ranking Republican.

• There is no indication when Democrats will hold their elections.

  • Additionally, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has not indicated if she intends to stay in Democratic leadership. Though, there is some reporting about rising star Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) being considered for a leadership role.

• Newly elected members of Congress will go through orientation over the following weeks and will formally start their jobs when the next Congress convenes on January 3, 2023.

• Republican leaders will need to finalize new committee ratios before Republicans and Democrats can give assignments to members.

  • It’s the job of the Republican Steering Committee and the Democratic Steering and Policy Committees to assign new and incumbent members to committee seats.